AI predicts who will win the 2028 US presidential election and gets ‘jawdropping’ result

With the 2024 election still fresh in the rearview mirror, the political world is already obsessing over the next leap year. But while human pundits are still dissecting exit polls, Elon Musk’s Grok AI has already run the numbers for 2028—and the results suggest a daunting uphill climb for the Democratic Party.

In a recent simulation highlighted by the political analysis channel Election Time, Grok was tasked with forecasting a hypothetical showdown between incumbent Vice President JD Vance and former Vice President Kamala Harris. The projection, which synthesizes current primary polling, betting market volatility, and shifting state demographics, offers a window into an Electoral College map that looks increasingly “red” in the AI’s estimation.

The Primary Landscape: Frontrunners Emerge
Before the general election map was drawn, the simulation analyzed the internal party dynamics that could lead to a Vance-Harris ticket.

The Democratic Primary: Despite her 2024 defeat, Kamala Harris remains a formidable force in early polling, commanding 32% support. She leads California Governor Gavin Newsom (23.8%) and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (10%). Grok points to a significant surge in betting market confidence; just months ago, Harris had an 11% chance of running, a figure that has since skyrocketed to 56%.

The Republican Primary: On the GOP side, JD Vance appears to be the undisputed heir to the MAGA movement. He dominates with 49.2% support, towering over Donald Trump Jr. and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Analysts suggest Vance’s “loyal surrogate” persona has cemented his status as the party’s standard-bearer in waiting.

The “Solid” Foundation: Ohio Flips the Script
Grok’s Electoral College map begins by locking in “solid” states—those where the margin of victory is expected to exceed 15 points.

For Vance, this includes the traditional Republican heartland, but with a significant addition: Ohio. Once the ultimate swing state, the AI predicts Vance will carry the Buckeye State by a solid 15-point margin, reflecting a long-term trend that saw Donald Trump win the state by double digits in 2024.

Harris’s solid column remains anchored in the West Coast and Northeast (California, Washington, Massachusetts). Notably, the model predicts Connecticut and Delaware returning to solid Democratic margins after they tightened significantly in the last cycle.

The Battle for the Rust Belt and Sun Belt
The “likely” and “leaning” categories are where the simulation truly diverges from past Democratic victories.

The Sun Belt: Grok forecasts Florida and Texas as firmly “likely” Red, while Arizona—which Trump narrowly flipped back in 2024—is projected to stay in the Republican column.

The Blue Wall: The most striking takeaway from the AI’s simulation is the collapse of the “Blue Wall.” Grok predicts Vance will sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These states, which have historically voted as a bloc since 1992, are projected to “lean” Republican in 2028.

Demographic Erosion: The model highlights “warning signs” in historically safe Democratic territory. New Jersey is projected to lean Blue by only five points, a massive drop from Joe Biden’s 16-point margin in 2020. Similarly, margins in New York and Illinois are expected to continue their recent downward trend.

The Final Tally: 312 to 212
When the digital dust settled, Grok AI’s simulation crowned JD Vance as the projected winner with 312 electoral votes, leaving Kamala Harris with 226.

The forecast has ignited a firestorm of online debate. While some skeptics dismiss the idea of a Harris comeback as improbable—”I don’t believe the Democrats could be stupid enough to run Kamala again,” one commenter noted—others argue that a Vance-led GOP could consolidate the working-class gains made during the Trump era.

As with any AI projection three years out, the variables are infinite. However, the Grok simulation serves as a sobering data point for Democratic strategists looking at a map where traditional strongholds are beginning to flicker purple.